Central Asia's Geopolitical Chessboard: Power Plays and Perils in a Multipolar World

Published on 14 August 2023 at 16:02

Across the vibrant tapestry of Central Asia, a riveting geopolitical spectacle unfolds, starring China, the United States, and Russia as protagonists in a strategic dance for influence. China's quest for stability in Xinjiang and access to energy clashes with the U.S.'s strategic repositioning post-Afghanistan, all the while Russia defends its political standing. Amidst this game of thrones, Central Asian governments deftly  capitalize on global attention in order to fortify domestic dominance. Such enrapturing power play offers a captivating glimpse into the ever-evolving geopolitics of our post-Western, multipolar world.

China, the United States of America, and Russia are the three states involved in Central Asia's interesting new game dynamic. Every one of these states is looking for something advantageous to come from this region. China seeks to stabilize the province of Xinjiang through security cooperation, development of the regional economy, and to gain access to Central Asia energy. To better assist its operations in Afghanistan, the United States is in search of locations and transport networks. Russia wants to maintain its position as a significant power and become the most influential country globally. The Central Government of Asia has been a driving force behind the new game. Taking full advantage of the revived focus and competition from the rest of the world, solidified domestic dominance and reaped economic rewards. The fact that they successfully pitted foreign nations against one another offers a significant perspective into the changing political dimensions of the post-Western, multipolar world.

Shortly, the US will withdraw from Afghanistan, and China's competition with Russia in this region is already obvious; however, Moscow's primary focus is on the United States and the defense of its political system, both of which China is also concerned. However, they lack economic resources required to compete with China. Until now, Beijing has made no overt military threats, and refuses to publicly discuss its goal of reducing the region to tributary status.

China's rising power bodes particularly ill for Central Asian states, if not Russia itself. The United States has a significant role to play: Central Asia's strategic autonomy concerning Russia and China will be protected if the US maintains an active presence there. The US should support the Central Asian region to establish new security structures. This assistance will ensure that Central Asian states retain their independence and contribute to the region's current instability.

It is widely held that Afghanistan is one of the most notorious sources of violence globally. The withdrawal of US and NATO troops from the country in 2014 [will] cause unrest in neighboring Central Asian states (this assumption is of course supported by dubious evidence). The most important factor in the maintenance of peace and stability in Central Asian states is the survival of the ruling regime. Though these states recognize their vulnerability to external threats such as terrorism and drug trafficking from Afghanistan, which corrupts and corrodes the sociopolitical fabric of their countries, maintaining the status quo is a higher priority than fending off these threats. In order to obtain resources from great powers, states must outsource certain aspects of security to more powerful neighbors. These resources may be then used to support domestic economic development, stabilize elite relationships, and the overall state. If smaller states fail to obtain these resources, they’ll be forced to seek external patrons, undermine the domestic situation, and introduce political rivalries - which could result in crisis.

Central Asian regimes must pour concentration into exploiting rivalries between the larger powers and circumstances that arise from their conflict. If they choose to get more involved with the fight over energy for example, they may increase domestic security through leveraging resources, (like energy prices,) and gain security from domestic threats in exchange for providing security and material assistance. This may allow for a less concerning or immediately threatening circumstances and rule out the prospect of genuine regional integration (combining territories). Apart from the visible maneuverings of the great powers in and in Central Asia, local states have failed to devise stable and functional forms of succession or regional cooperation. This is a stark contrast to the visible actions of the larger powers operating in and on Central Asia.

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